Therefore, anticipating trends, generating innovation or leading transformations have become indicators of success in organizations. Lectures, articles, studies and events celebrate this "futurephilia" as a fundamental and desirable behavior for those who want to prosper in the 21st century. Looking to the horizon ahead, they seek to predict, ahead of their competitors, when the new big wave will come and where it will break. They are looking in the wrong direction.
The future is not an abstraction to be imagined by privileged minds. We are not able to see the big wave on the horizon because it is not there. It is here, now. It is more difficult to perceive transformation when it is happening and the observers are also its protagonists. Paradoxical as it may seem, to see the future, we need to look to the past. The changes we experience today are just updated versions of what happened in decades past. Historically, we have made qualitative leaps thanks to the evolution of things that already existed. There is no spontaneous generation of innovation: it is a consequence of transformations rather than inventions.
The future is nothing more than the reinvention of the past.
From the mainframe computing of the 1960s to the personal computing of the 1980s, what basically changed was the cost of the components. The next wave, the web computing of the 2000s, came with the modem, which, roughly speaking, is nothing more than a phone that connects computers. The same goes for the evolution to mobile computing of the 2010s, which was an adaptation of computers to the format of phones. In other words, what we often call a revolution are actually evolutions and adaptations of concepts and ideas that have been circulating among us for a long time. To understand what lies ahead, we need to know the past and, above all, pay attention to the present.
So, what we will call new in a few years is already happening. And, once again, thanks to the same preconditions that fostered previous transformations: knowledge, tools and collaboration. This tripod has supported all the so-called industrial revolutions so far, from steam engines to artificial intelligence, through automation and robotics. If today we have Industry 4.0, it is because we went through 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0, always evolving and transforming to finally be able to say that we innovate.
At this pace, we have today reached what is known as the "smart era", or smart time in free translation. We have smartphones, smart TVs, smart watches, smart cars... All of them evolutions of their, let's say, non-smart versions. What defines the current moment is the search for convergence between the physical and digital worlds. We are adding connection where there was isolation. Our fridges are already connected to the internet and will soon supply themselves. Our cars don't need drivers and our watches tell us not only the time, but also that we might get sick soon and should control our diet.
Concepts such as IoT(internet of things), big data, wearables, cloud computing and 3D printing are part of the present built on the premises of the past. Knowledge, tools and collaboration continue to drive development. The Maker movement, which brings together supporters around the world, is perhaps the most eloquent example of this logic. Thousands of people are generating and absorbing knowledge, sharing tools, which are increasingly cheap and accessible, and collaborating to find solutions that connect the virtual and physical worlds.
All this to improve our relationship with the planet, with other human beings and, why not, with the machines themselves. Is there anything more traditional and ancient than man's quest for well-being? Our fundamental desires remain largely unchanged after centuries of history. The tools may have evolved, but the path of innovation remains the same. The good news is that the revolution is already happening. The great news is that it is within reach of more and more people.
